Those are not even remotely the same... That Waymo video has been pre-mapped. To infer that Waymo in 2012-2009 can go from point A to B anywhere in the U.S. like FSD Beta is patently false.
Ever wonder why Waymo only have their fleet in a geofenced area of AZ?
There's a difference between can't and won't. Yes their operation in Phoenix is heavily mapped and fenced, that doesn't mean that their technology can't and hasn't driven in more improvised environment before, and I highly doubt the lumbar street example was mapped.
Videos recorded by the company will always be cherry picked by definition, since they would only post videos that show the technology in its optimal working state. And there's always a driver behind the wheel checking everything goes right.
The reason Waymo is operating the way it does is they realize that they need to be 120% cautious, as ONE accident is all it takes to throw all their work a decade behind, jst like one accident is all it took to completely kill Uber's self driving effort. So again, it's not that they need a fully mapped geofenced area, it's that they choose to use that for now.
Hell, Tesla themselves posted their first "A to B" video back in 2016, yet here we are 5 years later and from a high level, what they showed in that cherry picked video they posted isn't much different to an average viewer, but no one would claim that they haven't improved at all in the past 5 years.
This is basic anecdotal data vs real statistics. A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.
> Videos recorded by the company will always be cherry picked by definition, since they would only post videos that show the technology in its optimal working state.
Except FSD Beta videos are coming from actual Tesla owners. Like the one I linked above. A pretty glaring difference.
> A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.
I'm not sure how comparable that data is. It seems to just sum up the times where random Tesla's where in Autopilot mode:
1. Autopilot from my understanding is L3 driving, with the driving needing to be attentive
2. They are not recording disengagements, or even near accidents, only full accidents
3. It seems to be like people would use Autopilot mostly on highways and other places where it works more reliably, so it's not a uniform set of miles
By comparison, here is 21 months of self-driving data from Waymo, with every disengagement and near accidents reported [0]. It's L4 driving with no drivers at the wheel. I'm sure Tesla tests their FSD similarly, and probably tracks similar data, are they releasing that? The other ones you posted says very little.
Do you have an article/video you can share by any chance?
I've been following Google's self driving efforts for years and must've missed that.